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If the probability that an individual suffers a bad reaction from an injection of a given serum is 0.001. The probability that out of 2000 individuals, more than two individuals suffer from bad reaction is:

[Given that e20.13534e^{-2} \approx 0.13534]

Solution

Correct Option: 2

Given that n=2000n = 2000 individuals receive injections, and each has probability p=0.001p = 0.001 of a bad reaction.

Since nn is large and pp is small, the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution is appropriate.


The parameter λ\lambda for the Poisson distribution is:

λ=n×p\lambda = n \times p

λ=2000×0.001\lambda = 2000 \times 0.001

λ=2\lambda = 2


The probability that more than two individuals suffer from bad reaction is:

P(X>2)=1P(X2)P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X \leq 2)

P(X>2)=1[P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)]P(X > 2) = 1 - [P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)]


Using the Poisson formula P(X=k)=λk×eλk!P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k \times e^{-\lambda}}{k!} with λ=2\lambda = 2 and e2=0.13534e^{-2} = 0.13534:

For X=0X = 0:

P(X=0)=20×e20!P(X = 0) = \frac{2^0 \times e^{-2}}{0!}

P(X=0)=1×0.135341P(X = 0) = \frac{1 \times 0.13534}{1}

P(X=0)=0.13534P(X = 0) = 0.13534


For X=1X = 1:

P(X=1)=21×e21!P(X = 1) = \frac{2^1 \times e^{-2}}{1!}

P(X=1)=2×0.135341P(X = 1) = \frac{2 \times 0.13534}{1}

P(X=1)=0.27068P(X = 1) = 0.27068


For X=2X = 2:

P(X=2)=22×e22!P(X = 2) = \frac{2^2 \times e^{-2}}{2!}

P(X=2)=4×0.135342P(X = 2) = \frac{4 \times 0.13534}{2}

P(X=2)=0.27068P(X = 2) = 0.27068


Therefore:

P(X2)=P(X=0)+P(X=1)+P(X=2)P(X \leq 2) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2)

P(X2)=0.13534+0.27068+0.27068P(X \leq 2) = 0.13534 + 0.27068 + 0.27068

P(X2)=0.6767P(X \leq 2) = 0.6767


P(X>2)=1P(X2)P(X > 2) = 1 - P(X \leq 2)

P(X>2)=10.6767P(X > 2) = 1 - 0.6767

P(X>2)=0.3233P(X > 2) = 0.3233

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