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A company has two plants P1P_1 and P2P_2 which produces 60% and 40% of pens respectively. At plant P1P_1 80% of pens are rated of grade A and at plant P2P_2 90% of pens are rated of grade A. A pen is picked up at random and is found to be of grade A. The probability that it has manufactured from plant P1P_1 is:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 1

By Bayes' theorem, the favourable path is 0.6×0.8=0.480.6\times0.8 = 0.48 and the other path is 0.4×0.9=0.360.4\times0.9 = 0.36.

Total grade A probability =0.84= 0.84, so the required probability is 0.48/0.84=4/70.48/0.84 = 4/7.

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