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A bag contains 4 red and 6 green balls. A ball is drawn at random. Its colour is noted and is returned to the bag. One additional ball of the colour drawn is put in the bag. Again a ball is then drawn from the bag. The probability of this ball to be of green colour is

Solution

Correct Option: 3

The bag initially contains 4 red balls and 6 green balls, for a total of 10 balls.

A ball is drawn, its color is noted, it is returned to the bag, and one additional ball of the same color is added. Then a second ball is drawn.

The second ball can be green in two scenarios: either the first ball drawn was red, or the first ball drawn was green.


If the first ball drawn is red:

Probability of drawing a red ball first:

P(1st ball is Red)=410P(\text{1st ball is Red}) = \frac{4}{10}

P(1st ball is Red)=25P(\text{1st ball is Red}) = \frac{2}{5}

After returning the red ball and adding one more red ball, the bag contains 5 red balls and 6 green balls, for a total of 11 balls.

Probability of drawing a green ball second:

P(2nd ball is Green | 1st was Red)=611P(\text{2nd ball is Green | 1st was Red}) = \frac{6}{11}

Combined probability for this scenario:

P(Red then Green)=25×611P(\text{Red then Green}) = \frac{2}{5} \times \frac{6}{11}

P(Red then Green)=1255P(\text{Red then Green}) = \frac{12}{55}


If the first ball drawn is green:

Probability of drawing a green ball first:

P(1st ball is Green)=610P(\text{1st ball is Green}) = \frac{6}{10}

P(1st ball is Green)=35P(\text{1st ball is Green}) = \frac{3}{5}

After returning the green ball and adding one more green ball, the bag contains 4 red balls and 7 green balls, for a total of 11 balls.

Probability of drawing a green ball second:

P(2nd ball is Green | 1st was Green)=711P(\text{2nd ball is Green | 1st was Green}) = \frac{7}{11}

Combined probability for this scenario:

P(Green then Green)=35×711P(\text{Green then Green}) = \frac{3}{5} \times \frac{7}{11}

P(Green then Green)=2155P(\text{Green then Green}) = \frac{21}{55}


The total probability that the second ball is green:

P(2nd ball is Green)=1255+2155P(\text{2nd ball is Green}) = \frac{12}{55} + \frac{21}{55}

P(2nd ball is Green)=3355P(\text{2nd ball is Green}) = \frac{33}{55}

P(2nd ball is Green)=35P(\text{2nd ball is Green}) = \frac{3}{5}

Therefore, the probability of the second ball being green is 35\frac{3}{5}.

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