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An insurance company insured 200 scooter drivers, 400 car drivers and 600 Truck drivers. The probability of an accident involving scooter driver, car driver and truck driver are 0.01, 0.03 and 0.15 respectively. One of the insured person meets an accident, then the probability that he is a truck driver is:-

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 4

Total drivers =1200=1200. By Bayes' theorem the numerator is 600(0.15)=90600(0.15)=90 and the denominator is 200(0.01)+400(0.03)+600(0.15)=2+12+90=104200(0.01)+400(0.03)+600(0.15)=2+12+90=104. So the probability is 90104=4552\frac{90}{104}=\frac{45}{52}.

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