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Two percent of the bolts manufactured in a factory are found to be defective. Using the Poisson distribution, the probability that in a sample of 100 bolts chosen at random, exactly two will be defective, is: [Given e−2=0.135e^{-2}=0.135]

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 4

The Poisson distribution is used for counting rare events, making it suitable for defect-type problems.

Given information:

  • 2% of bolts are defective
  • Sample size: 100 bolts
  • Required: probability of exactly 2 defective bolts

The parameter λ\lambda represents the expected number of defects.

λ=Total bolts×Defect rate\lambda = \text{Total bolts} \times \text{Defect rate}

λ=100×0.02\lambda = 100 \times 0.02

λ=2\lambda = 2


The Poisson formula:

P(X=k)=λk×e−λk!P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k \times e^{-\lambda}}{k!}

where:

  • k=2k = 2 (exactly 2 defective bolts)
  • λ=2\lambda = 2
  • e−2=0.135e^{-2} = 0.135 (given)

For exactly 2 defective bolts:

P(X=2)=22×e−22!P(X = 2) = \frac{2^2 \times e^{-2}}{2!}

P(X=2)=4×0.1352P(X = 2) = \frac{4 \times 0.135}{2}

P(X=2)=0.542P(X = 2) = \frac{0.54}{2}

P(X=2)=0.27P(X = 2) = 0.27

Therefore, the probability is 0.27.

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