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Bag I contains 2 red and 3 blue balls and bag II contains α\alpha red and 5 blue balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the bags and is found to be blue. If the probability that it was drawn from bag II is 2552\frac{25}{52}, then α\alpha is equal to:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 3

By Bayes' theorem, 12⋅5α+512⋅35+12⋅5α+5=2552\frac{\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{5}{\alpha+5}}{\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{3}{5}+\frac{1}{2}\cdot\frac{5}{\alpha+5}}=\frac{25}{52}.

Simplifying gives 253(α+5)+25=2552\frac{25}{3(\alpha+5)+25}=\frac{25}{52}, so 3α+15=273\alpha+15=27 and α=4\alpha=4.

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