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A letter is known to have come either from LONDON or CLIFTON. On the envelope, just two consecutive letters 'ON' are visible then the probability that the letter has come from CLIFTON is:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 1

LONDON has 5 consecutive pairs, of which 2 are ON, so P(ON∣L)=25P(ON|L) = \dfrac{2}{5}.

CLIFTON has 6 consecutive pairs, of which 1 is ON, so P(ON∣C)=16P(ON|C) = \dfrac{1}{6}.

By Bayes' theorem, P(C∣ON)=12⋅1612⋅25+12⋅16=517P(C|ON) = \dfrac{\frac12\cdot\frac16}{\frac12\cdot\frac25+\frac12\cdot\frac16} = \dfrac{5}{17}.

2022: 6 Aug Shift 2

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