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Let yt=a+b(xi−2021)y_t=a+b(x_i-2021) be the straight line trend for the following data by least squares method:

Year(xix_i)2018201920202021202220232024
Production in Lakh tonnes(yiy_i)32343035383942

the trend value for the year 2025 approximately is:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 1

With X=xi−2021X=x_i-2021 taking values −3-3 to 33: ∑y=250\sum y=250 so a=2507≈35.71a=\frac{250}{7}\approx35.71; ∑Xy=48\sum Xy=48 and ∑X2=28\sum X^2=28 so b=4828≈1.714b=\frac{48}{28}\approx1.714. For 2025, X=4X=4, giving 35.71+4(1.714)≈42.5735.71+4(1.714)\approx42.57.

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