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A box has 5 blue and 4 red balls. One ball is drawn at random and not replaced. Its colour is also not noted, then another ball is drawn at random. The probability of second ball being red is

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 2

Condition on the first ball: P=59⋅48+49⋅38=20+1272=49P=\frac{5}{9}\cdot\frac{4}{8}+\frac{4}{9}\cdot\frac{3}{8}=\frac{20+12}{72}=\frac{4}{9}. Since the first ball's colour is never observed, it carries no information, so by symmetry the second ball is red with the original proportion 49\frac{4}{9}.

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