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For independent events A1,A2,A3,...,AnA_1, A_2, A_3, ..., A_n if P(Ai)=1i+1P(A_i) = \frac{1}{i+1}, i=1,2,3,...,ni = 1, 2, 3, ..., n, then the probability that none of the events occur is:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 3

Events A1,A2,A3,...,AnA_1, A_2, A_3, ..., A_n are independent with P(Ai)=1i+1P(A_i) = \frac{1}{i+1}.

This gives:

  • P(A1)=12P(A_1) = \frac{1}{2}
  • P(A2)=13P(A_2) = \frac{1}{3}
  • P(A3)=14P(A_3) = \frac{1}{4}
  • And so on...

"None of the events occur" means A1A_1 doesn't happen AND A2A_2 doesn't happen AND A3A_3 doesn't happen, etc.

In probability notation: P(A1‾∩A2‾∩A3‾∩...∩An‾)P(\overline{A_1} \cap \overline{A_2} \cap \overline{A_3} \cap ... \cap \overline{A_n})


Since the events are independent:

P(none occur)=P(A1‾)×P(A2‾)×P(A3‾)×...×P(An‾)P(\text{none occur}) = P(\overline{A_1}) \times P(\overline{A_2}) \times P(\overline{A_3}) \times ... \times P(\overline{A_n})


For each event, using the complement rule:

P(Ai‾)=1−P(Ai)P(\overline{A_i}) = 1 - P(A_i)

P(Ai‾)=1−1i+1P(\overline{A_i}) = 1 - \frac{1}{i+1}

P(Ai‾)=i+1−1i+1P(\overline{A_i}) = \frac{i+1-1}{i+1}

P(Ai‾)=ii+1P(\overline{A_i}) = \frac{i}{i+1}

This gives:

  • P(A1‾)=12P(\overline{A_1}) = \frac{1}{2}
  • P(A2‾)=23P(\overline{A_2}) = \frac{2}{3}
  • P(A3‾)=34P(\overline{A_3}) = \frac{3}{4}
  • P(An‾)=nn+1P(\overline{A_n}) = \frac{n}{n+1}

P(none occur)=12×23×34×45×...×nn+1P(\text{none occur}) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{2}{3} \times \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{4}{5} \times ... \times \frac{n}{n+1}

=1×2×3×4×...×n2×3×4×5×...×(n+1)= \frac{1 \times 2 \times 3 \times 4 \times ... \times n}{2 \times 3 \times 4 \times 5 \times ... \times (n+1)}

The 2 in the numerator cancels with 2 in the denominator, the 3 cancels with 3, the 4 with 4, and so on.

After cancellation, only 1 remains in the numerator and only (n+1)(n+1) remains in the denominator.

=1n+1= \frac{1}{n+1}


Therefore, the probability that none of the events occur is 1n+1\frac{1}{n+1}.

2022: 6 Aug Shift 2

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