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It is given that 3% of items manufactured by an industry are defective. The probability that a packet of 250 items contains one defective item is: [Given: e−7.5≈0.000553e^{-7.5} \approx 0.000553]

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 3

The defective rate is 3%, so the probability of a defective item is p=0.03p = 0.03.

The packet contains n=250n = 250 items.

Given that e−7.5≈0.000553e^{-7.5} \approx 0.000553, this suggests using Poisson approximation since nn is large, pp is small, and the exponential term is provided.


For Poisson approximation, calculate λ\lambda:

λ=n×p\lambda = n \times p

λ=250×0.03\lambda = 250 \times 0.03

λ=7.5\lambda = 7.5


The Poisson formula for exactly kk occurrences is:

P(X=k)=λk×e−λk!P(X = k) = \dfrac{\lambda^k \times e^{-\lambda}}{k!}

For exactly 1 defective item, substitute k=1k = 1 and λ=7.5\lambda = 7.5:

P(X=1)=7.51×e−7.51!P(X = 1) = \dfrac{7.5^1 \times e^{-7.5}}{1!}

P(X=1)=7.5×0.0005531P(X = 1) = \dfrac{7.5 \times 0.000553}{1}

P(X=1)=0.0041475P(X = 1) = 0.0041475

P(X=1)≈0.00415P(X = 1) \approx 0.00415


Therefore, the probability that a packet of 250 items contains exactly one defective item is 0.004150.00415.

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