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The probability that a man aged 35 years will die before reaching the age of 40 years may be taken as 0.018. Out of a group of 100 men, now aged 35 years, what is the approximate probability that one man will die within next five years?

(Given: e−1.8=0.1653e^{-1.8}=0.1653)

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 3

With n=100n=100 large and p=0.018p=0.018 small, use the Poisson approximation with λ=np=1.8\lambda=np=1.8.

P(X=1)=λe−λ=1.8×0.1653≈0.2975P(X=1)=\lambda e^{-\lambda}=1.8\times0.1653\approx0.2975.

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