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Due to which of the following, the irregular variations in a time series are caused:

(A) Floods

(B) Rise in prices before festivals

(C) A fire in a factory

(D) Epidemics

Choose the correct answer from the options given below:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 3

Time series data exhibits four types of variations:

Trend: Long-term direction (e.g., population growth over years)

Seasonal: Regular, predictable patterns that repeat (e.g., ice cream sales rise every summer)

Cyclical: Medium-term fluctuations (e.g., economic cycles)

Irregular: Unpredictable, random, sudden events (e.g., natural disasters, accidents)

Irregular variations are caused by events that cannot be predicted and occur randomly.


Analyzing each option:

(A) Floods: These are unpredictable and sudden natural events. They cause irregular variations.

(B) Rise in prices before festivals: This occurs every year before the same festivals in a predictable pattern. This is a seasonal variation, not irregular.

(C) A fire in a factory: This is an unpredictable and sudden event. It causes irregular variations.

(D) Epidemics: These are unpredictable and strike suddenly. They cause irregular variations.


Events causing irregular variations are unpredictable and random occurrences like natural disasters, accidents, and sudden catastrophes.

Options (A), (C), and (D) represent such unpredictable events.

Option (B) represents a predictable seasonal pattern.

Therefore, the correct answer is: (A), (C) and (D) only

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