Skip to main contentSkip to solution

An urn I contains 3 white and 4 blue balls, while urn II contains 5 white and 6 blue balls. One ball is drawn at random from one of the urns and it is found to be white. The probability that it was drawn from urn II is

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 4

Urn I contains 3 white and 4 blue balls (7 total).

Urn II contains 5 white and 6 blue balls (11 total).

One urn is chosen randomly and a white ball is drawn.


The probability of drawing white from Urn I:

P(White from Urn I)=37P(\text{White from Urn I}) = \frac{3}{7}

The probability of drawing white from Urn II:

P(White from Urn II)=511P(\text{White from Urn II}) = \frac{5}{11}


Since each urn is chosen with probability 12\frac{1}{2}:

P(Urn I and White)=12×37P(\text{Urn I and White}) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{3}{7}

=314= \frac{3}{14}

P(Urn II and White)=12×511P(\text{Urn II and White}) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{5}{11}

=522= \frac{5}{22}


The total probability of drawing a white ball:

P(White)=314+522P(\text{White}) = \frac{3}{14} + \frac{5}{22}

=33154+35154= \frac{33}{154} + \frac{35}{154}

=68154= \frac{68}{154}


Using Bayes' theorem:

P(Urn II | White)=P(Urn II and White)P(White)P(\text{Urn II | White}) = \frac{P(\text{Urn II and White})}{P(\text{White})}

=5/2268/154= \frac{5/22}{68/154}

=522×15468= \frac{5}{22} \times \frac{154}{68}

=7701496= \frac{770}{1496}

=3568= \frac{35}{68}

Therefore, the probability that the white ball was drawn from Urn II is 3568\frac{35}{68}.

Keyboard Shortcuts

  • Left arrow: Previous question
  • Right arrow: Next question
  • S key: Jump to solution
  • Q key: Jump to question