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An urn contains 5 red and 5 black balls. A ball is drawn at random, its color is noted and is returned to the urn. Moreover, 2 additional balls of the same color are put in the urn and then a ball is drawn at random. The probability that the second drawn ball is red, is:

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 2

The urn initially contains 5 red balls and 5 black balls, for a total of 10 balls.

A ball is drawn at random, its color is noted, and it is returned to the urn along with 2 additional balls of the same color. Then a second ball is drawn.

The probability that the second ball is red depends on the color of the first ball drawn.


If the first ball drawn is red:

Probability of drawing red first: P(1st red)=510=12P(\text{1st red}) = \frac{5}{10} = \frac{1}{2}

After returning the red ball and adding 2 more red balls, the urn contains:

  • 7 red balls
  • 5 black balls
  • Total: 12 balls

Probability the second ball is red given the first was red:

P(2nd red | 1st red)=712P(\text{2nd red | 1st red}) = \frac{7}{12}


If the first ball drawn is black:

Probability of drawing black first: P(1st black)=510=12P(\text{1st black}) = \frac{5}{10} = \frac{1}{2}

After returning the black ball and adding 2 more black balls, the urn contains:

  • 5 red balls
  • 7 black balls
  • Total: 12 balls

Probability the second ball is red given the first was black:

P(2nd red | 1st black)=512P(\text{2nd red | 1st black}) = \frac{5}{12}


Using the law of total probability:

P(2nd red)=P(1st red)×P(2nd red | 1st red)+P(1st black)×P(2nd red | 1st black)P(\text{2nd red}) = P(\text{1st red}) \times P(\text{2nd red | 1st red}) + P(\text{1st black}) \times P(\text{2nd red | 1st black})

P(2nd red)=12×712+12×512P(\text{2nd red}) = \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{7}{12} + \frac{1}{2} \times \frac{5}{12}

P(2nd red)=724+524P(\text{2nd red}) = \frac{7}{24} + \frac{5}{24}

P(2nd red)=1224P(\text{2nd red}) = \frac{12}{24}

P(2nd red)=12P(\text{2nd red}) = \frac{1}{2}

Therefore, the probability that the second drawn ball is red is 12\frac{1}{2}.

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