In answering a question on a multiple choice test for class XII, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let 53 be the probability that he knows the answer and 52 be the probability that he guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 31. Let E1, E2, and E be the events that the student knows the answer, guesses the answer and answers correctly respectively. A student answers correctly if he/she knows the answer. Using the above information, answer the question:
It is given that student marked the answer correctly, the probability that he guesses is
Solution
✅ Correct Option: 4
By Bayes' theorem: P(E2/E)=P(E)P(E2)P(E/E2)=11/152/15=112.