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CASE STUDY

In answering a question on a multiple choice test for class XII, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let 35\frac{3}{5} be the probability that he knows the answer and 25\frac{2}{5} be the probability that he guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 13\frac{1}{3}. Let E1E_1, E2E_2, and E be the events that the student knows the answer, guesses the answer and answers correctly respectively. A student answers correctly if he/she knows the answer. Using the above information, answer the question:

It is given that student marked the answer correctly, the probability that he guesses is

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 4

By Bayes' theorem: P(E2/E)=P(E2)P(E/E2)P(E)=2/1511/15=211P(E_2/E) = \frac{P(E_2) P(E/E_2)}{P(E)} = \frac{2/15}{11/15} = \frac{2}{11}.

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