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CASE STUDY

In answering a question on a multiple choice test for class XII, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let 35\frac{3}{5} be the probability that he knows the answer and 25\frac{2}{5} be the probability that he guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 13\frac{1}{3}. Let E1E_1, E2E_2, and E be the events that the student knows the answer, guesses the answer and answers correctly respectively. A student answers correctly if he/she knows the answer. Using the above information, answer the question:

The probability of 'the student knows the answer given that he answered it correctly' is

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 3

By Bayes' theorem: P(E1/E)=P(E1)P(E/E1)P(E)=(3/5)(1)11/15=3/5⋅1511=911P(E_1/E) = \frac{P(E_1) P(E/E_1)}{P(E)} = \frac{(3/5)(1)}{11/15} = \frac{3/5 \cdot 15}{11} = \frac{9}{11}.

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