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CASE STUDY

In answering a question on a multiple choice test for class XII, a student either knows the answer or guesses. Let 35\frac{3}{5} be the probability that he knows the answer and 25\frac{2}{5} be the probability that he guesses. Assume that a student who guesses at the answer will be correct with probability 13\frac{1}{3}. Let E1E_1, E2E_2, and E be the events that the student knows the answer, guesses the answer and answers correctly respectively. A student answers correctly if he/she knows the answer. Using the above information, answer the question:

The value of P(E)P(E) is

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 1

By total probability: P(E)=P(E1)P(E/E1)+P(E2)P(E/E2)=(3/5)(1)+(2/5)(1/3)=9/15+2/15=11/15P(E) = P(E_1) P(E/E_1) + P(E_2) P(E/E_2) = (3/5)(1) + (2/5)(1/3) = 9/15 + 2/15 = 11/15.

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