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A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A1,A2,A3A_1, A_2, A_3. They are sold as a mixture where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively. Calculate the probability in the following cases.

A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A1,A2,A3A_1, A_2, A_3. They are sold as a mixture where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively. Calculate the probability in the following cases.

The probability that seed is not of type A1A_1, given that seed germinates.

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 2

P(A1∣G)=P(A1)P(G∣A1)P(G)=0.4×0.450.49=0.180.49=1849P(A_1|G) = \frac{P(A_1) P(G|A_1)}{P(G)} = \frac{0.4 \times 0.45}{0.49} = \frac{0.18}{0.49} = \frac{18}{49}.

P(not A1∣G)=1−1849=3149P(\text{not } A_1 | G) = 1 - \frac{18}{49} = \frac{31}{49}.

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