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A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A1,A2,A3A_1, A_2, A_3. They are sold as a mixture where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively. Calculate the probability in the following cases.

A shopkeeper sells three types of flower seeds A1,A2,A3A_1, A_2, A_3. They are sold as a mixture where the proportions are 4 : 4 : 2 respectively. The germination rates of the three types of seeds are 45%, 60% and 35% respectively. Calculate the probability in the following cases.

The probability that seed is of type A2A_2 given that seed germinate.

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 2

By Bayes theorem:

P(A2∣G)=P(A2)P(G∣A2)P(G)P(A_2|G) = \frac{P(A_2) P(G|A_2)}{P(G)}

=0.4×0.600.49= \frac{0.4 \times 0.60}{0.49}

=0.240.49=2449= \frac{0.24}{0.49} = \frac{24}{49}.

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