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It is given that only 0.1% of a large population have COVID infection. In this population, the reliability of COVID RTPCR-test is specified as follows :

For persons having COVID, 90% of the test detects the disease but 10% goes undetected. For persons not having COVID, 99% of the test is judged COVID negative but 1% are diagnosed as COVID positive.

It is given that only 0.1% of a large population have COVID infection. In this population, the reliability of COVID RTPCR-test is specified as follows :

For persons having COVID, 90% of the test detects the disease but 10% goes undetected. For persons not having COVID, 99% of the test is judged COVID negative but 1% are diagnosed as COVID positive.

Based on the above informations, answer the question :

The probability that the person is actually having COVID given that he is tested as COVID positive is :

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 1

By Bayes: P(COVID∣positive)=0.9×0.0010.01089=0.00090.01089=901089=10121P(\text{COVID}|\text{positive}) = \frac{0.9 \times 0.001}{0.01089} = \frac{0.0009}{0.01089} = \frac{90}{1089} = \frac{10}{121}.

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