From a pack of 52 cards, we draw one by one, without replacement. If is the probability that an Ace will appear at the turn, then
From a pack of 52 cards, we draw one by one, without replacement. If is the probability that an Ace will appear at the turn, then
Solution
is the probability that the card drawn is an Ace.
Think of it this way: before drawing, every card is equally likely to be in any position. The position is no more or less likely to hold an Ace than any other position.
By symmetry:
for all
Let's verify with . The card can be an Ace in two ways:
Case 1: card was an Ace AND card is also an Ace
Case 2: card was not an Ace AND card is an Ace
Adding them:
✓
This confirms that the position of the draw doesn't matter — each position is equally likely to hold an Ace.
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