A speaks the truth in 70% of cases and B lies in 40% of cases. The probability that they will say the same thing while describing a single event (to have occurred or not) will be:
A speaks the truth in 70% of cases and B lies in 40% of cases. The probability that they will say the same thing while describing a single event (to have occurred or not) will be:
Solution
A speaks the truth in 70% of cases, so A lies in 30% of cases.
B lies in 40% of cases, so B speaks the truth in 60% of cases.
Therefore:
- P(A tells truth) =
- P(A lies) =
- P(B tells truth) =
- P(B lies) =
For A and B to say the same thing while describing a single event, either both tell the truth or both lie.
P(Both tell truth) = P(A tells truth) × P(B tells truth)
P(Both lie) = P(A lies) × P(B lies)
P(They say the same thing) = P(Both tell truth) + P(Both lie)
Therefore, the probability that they will say the same thing is .
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