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A man is known to speak truth 4 out of 5 times. He throws a die and reports that five appears. Then the probability that actual five appears on the dice is

Solution

✅ Correct Option: 2

Let T = truth, F = false. P(T)=4/5P(T) = 4/5, P(F)=1/5P(F) = 1/5. P(actual 5)=1/6P(\text{actual 5}) = 1/6, P(not 5)=5/6P(\text{not 5}) = 5/6. By Bayes' theorem: P(actual 5∣reports 5)=(4/5)(1/6)(4/5)(1/6)+(1/5)(5/6)=4/304/30+5/30=49P(\text{actual 5} | \text{reports 5}) = \frac{(4/5)(1/6)}{(4/5)(1/6) + (1/5)(5/6)} = \frac{4/30}{4/30 + 5/30} = \frac{4}{9}.

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